The impact of multiple transmission pathways and movement of vector reservoirs on the dynamics of Dengue

Abstract The change in geographical distribution of Dengue Fever and the introduction of new vector species in some areas are increasing the concerns of epidemiologist. It is believed that second hand tire trade and its transportation has been a factor in dengue spread as it is a mobile egg reservoir. Understanding the underlying dynamics of eggs transportation due to tire trade can help prevent or reduce dengue expansion and give alternative explanations to unexpected dengue outbreaks where vertical transmission plays an important role. In this paper, we assess the impact of transportation of tires that act as hatcheries from rural areas with dengue disease to urban areas without the disease. A mathematical model capturing dynamics of Dengue in the two distinct patches, representing rural and urban areas, is introduced and analyzed. The model takes into account the explicit movement and storage time of tires. The model was able to capture four possible situations in the field under different geographical circumstances. In the first, a new mosquito species is introduced in a naive mosquitoes species region, in the second a Dengue outbreak is generated, in the third scenario an endemic state is enhanced or induced whether urban conditions for an outbreak are met of not, in the last scenario we asses the possibility of using the second hand tire trade as a dengue control measure. Keyword: Dengue, vertical transmission, diapause, reservoirs, tires